TIER revises 2022 GPD growth forecast down to 2.9%

2022-09-26

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research has revised its GDP forecast for 2022 down to 2.9%. That’s a drop of 0.3% from the forecast made in August. The institute says the factors that are impacting economic growth in Taiwan are Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and tightening monetary policies around the world.

In the face of rising global interest rates, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and tightening monetary policies, the global economy is sluggish. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research in September revised its predicted 2022 GDP growth rate down to 2.9%. That’s down from a 3.2% prediction last month. The institute also announced a consumer price index of 2.66% for August.

Sun Ming-te
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research
In the U.S. and Europe the CPI has grown to 8% or 9%, and across Asia it’s over 2%. So it’s trending upward worldwide. There doesn’t appear to be any clear trend of this slowing.

Following the U.S. Fed’s rise of key interest rates by 75 basis points, Taiwan’s central bank adjusted Taiwan’s expected annual economic growth rate down to 3.51%. It also raised Taiwan’s own interest rates by 12.5 basis points to 1.625%, up from 1.5% in August. TIER says the current frequency of rate hikes will not impact domestic demand and economic recovery.

Sun Ming-te
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research
With a potential easing of border restrictions on Oct. 13, we can expect economic growth in the fourth quarter — that’s a definite. As for whether the interest rate hike will affect that, right now the rate is only a bit over 1%. It’s not high at all. In the U.S. the rate is already over 6%. Such an aggressive raising of rates will definitely impact consumer demand there, but in Taiwan the rate increase is really limited.

TIER’s forecasts predict strong economic growth in the fourth quarter fueled by the tourism sector after the lifting of travel quarantines. It also expects the CPI to be lower next year, adding that that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates again next year. It adds that even if the currently CPI of 2.95% drops to the expected 2.52% in 2023, the rate will still be well above 2%, indicating high inflation.

全球通膨重傷景氣台經院下修GDP至2.9%

2022-09-26

全球通膨重傷景氣，繼央行下修今年的經濟成長率到3.51之後，台經院也宣布，主要機構預測"經濟成長率"從上月3.2%下修到2.9%，經濟成長率難保3的原因，主要是受到俄烏戰爭，和全球多國升息來抗通膨的影響，看壞未來半年景氣會呈趨緩甚至低迷。

受到全球多國持續升息對抗通膨，加上俄烏戰爭，以及貨幣緊縮政策等多重利空因素，全球景氣持續呈現低迷。台經院宣布GDP從上月3.2%下修到2.9%，八月份消費者物價指數CPI則是2.66%。

[[台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德]]
“美歐的物價上漲率都是8%、9%，亞洲都超過2%以上，所以全世界的這股物價上漲的趨勢，目前看起來並沒有一個明顯緩和的趨勢。”

受到近期美國聯準會升息三碼影響，上週央行下修台灣經濟成長率到3.51%、第三度升息半碼，利率從八月的1.5%，升到1.625%，不過台經院表示，以央行目前的升息速度，不至於會影響未來的內需經濟復甦。

[[台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德]]
“10月13號解封，第四季的經濟可望回升，這個答案當然是肯定的。那升息因素會不會干擾，目前台灣的利率才一點多，沒有高到多少，現在美國的利率已經超過6%，他們利率漲那麼兇，當然會對內需造成影響，但是台灣的利率上升幅度很有限。”

台經院預估，下個月國境開放後，觀光旅遊產業有望帶動內需市場回溫，而且預測明年CPI消費者物價指數應會下降，明年央行利率調升的機率不大。不過，以央行預估的物價指數今年有2.95%、明年也有2.52%來看，都遠高於2%的平均水準，因此通膨物價疑慮恐怕仍是明年的重要課題。