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KMT, TPP expected to court votes from each other’s support base

KMT, TPP expected to court votes from each other’s support base

2023-11-24

Taiwan’s presidential election is officially a three-way race. What’s up next for the opposition? Analysts say the KMT and TPP will try to recruit voters from each other’s support base. That is, they’ll encourage the other side to vote for their own candidate, in order to consolidate votes and prevent a DPP victory. But successful instances of such a tactic are rare. And experts say that the KMT and TPP bases are very different, making success unlikely.

Chang Yi-san
Former TPP aide
For this to work, the first condition is that the election frontrunner can’t be too far ahead. The second-place candidate and first should be within 10 percentage points. The second condition is that there needs to be a big gap between the second- and third-place candidates. We don’t yet see that big gap.

Clarence Wu
Former People First Party spokesman
Right now the people of the TPP camp and those in the KMT camp don’t have much in common, so there’s a very low chance of strategic voting working out. In reality, the two camps will only be consolidating their own voter bases. But Lai Ching-te can’t be complacent here. He can’t afford to be complacent, because any election can have an unforeseen event. Who knows what could happen in the coming two months?

In the history of Taiwan’s presidential elections, the most famous three-way race was in the year 2000. The KMT’s Lien Chan and James Soong of the People First Party both courted each other’s supporters. In the end, the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian won with 39.3% of the vote, surpassing Soong’s 36.84% and Lien’s 23.1%.

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總統大選三腳督! 媒體人:藍白棄保成功機率不高

2023-11-24

總統大選演變成三腳督戰局,外界預料,接下來藍白陣營將操作棄保,回顧過往的三腳督選舉,成功的並不多,名嘴也多判斷,藍白間差距不大、而且並非系出同門,棄保成功的機率不高。

[[柯文哲前幕僚 張益贍]]
“第一個條件就是說,你必須離第一名不能差距太遠,也就是說我們預估上統計上大概抓個10%,第二個條件就是說,第二名跟第三名的差距要拉開,第二名跟第三名,目前沒有發生拉開的差距”

[[前親民黨發言人 吳崑玉]]
“現在的狀況是,白的人馬他們的組成成分跟國民黨是沒有什麼淵源的,所以這次棄保的機率很低,雙方可能都是在穩固自己的基本盤而已,賴清德也不能躺著選,也不可能躺著選,因為選舉永遠會有意外,你不知道未來兩個月中間,會發生什麼事情”

總統大選最有名的三腳督,發生在2000年,選前最後關頭,連戰與宋楚瑜陣營互喊棄保,但最後陳水扁以39.3%的得票率,贏過宋楚瑜的36.84%以及連戰的23.1%。

更多新聞內容,請鎖定:
民視台灣台(152頻道)週日至週五晚上9:30
民視新聞台(53頻道)週二至週六凌晨1:00


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