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Academia Sinica research shows earthquakes spike 30% during dry season

Academia Sinica research shows earthquakes spike 30% during dry season

2026-06-03

Southwestern Taiwan has not seen much rain lately, but could the amount of rainfall have implications for seismic activity? After analyzing 16 years of satellite data, researchers at Academia Sinica discovered that seasonal rainfall may actually help regulate earthquakes. Every year during the dry season from February to April, the earth’s crust below southwestern Taiwan lifts as downward pressure eases, raising the frequency of earthquakes of at least magnitude 2.5 by 30% on average. However, seismologists stress that the correlation between seismic activity and groundwater levels shouldn’t be a cause for concern. And meteorologists have good news: From June 5, the region will finally see significant plum rains.

An expert can tap a watermelon to know if it’s sweet or not. The drier the weather, the sweeter it’ll be. Amid scant rainfall in southern Taiwan, reservoir levels have been plummeting. But that’s not all. Academia Sinica researchers have also discovered that the dry season may actually increase the frequency of earthquakes by 30%

Voice of Kuo Kai-wen
Seismologist
Groundwater permeates into the earth at a very slow rate. The depth of many of our earthquakes is at least 10km, meaning there’s no definitive correlation between seismic activity and surface water levels. There’s no need to worry that much. And large quakes of magnitude 6 or above aren’t that easy to predict.

While this seismologist stresses there’s no need to worry, Academia Sinica analysis of satellite data between 2002 and 2018 found that quakes are more likely during times of low rainfall. Researchers believe the primary reason is hydrological shifting, with the vertical stress amplitude induced by water fluctuations two to four times higher than horizontal stress. Tectonic pressure aside, the south desperately needs drought relief. A powerful Pacific high-pressure system in May kept the seasonal plum rains away, but the southwest monsoon is finally projected to move northward in early June.

Voice of Wu Sheng-yu
Meteorologist
Starting on the 5th or 6th and continuing until the middle of June, the southwest monsoon will gradually move north. For about seven to 10 days, during this time, there’s a good chance of developing a typical plum rain front.

As June looks poised to end Taiwan’s dry spell, the impending rainfall may do more than just alleviate drought—it could also help relieve the mounting stress built up beneath the earth’s crust.

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#earthquake #rainfall #drought #plumrains #AcademiaSinica #research #seismology #meteorology #tectonicstress

缺水更易地震? 中研院分析:乾季地震活動增3成

2026-06-03

台灣西南部最近缺水,難道會是引發地震的隱形炸彈嗎?中研院團隊分析了16年的衛星定位數據,發現季節降雨竟然會調控地震!數據顯示,在每年2到4月的乾季,西南部地殼隆起、壓力減輕,規模2.5以上的地震竟然比平均高出3成,不過地震專家認為,大地震跟地下水的關聯不用過度恐慌,氣象專家也帶來好消息,6/5後,中南部就會迎來明顯的梅雨。

西瓜甜不甜,專家拍一拍就知道! 氣候越乾,西瓜就越甜,近來南部少雨,水庫蓄水率直直落,中研院調查更發現,西南部乾季,會讓地震活動,增加三成機率。

[[聲源:地震專家 郭鎧紋]]
“那地下水它那個滲透的那個速度很慢,我們很多那個地震的那個深度,至少都在十公里以下的那個深度,跟那個地表水的那個關係並不是那麼明確了,不必太過緊張了,真的大的那個地震,那個規模6以上的地震,那個要預測也不是那麼簡單了”

儘管地震專家認為,不必過度緊張,但中研院分析2002年到2018年,長達16年的衛星定位數據,發現缺水時更易引發地震,主因就是水文變化,誘發的垂直應力振幅,比水平應力高出2到4倍。不管地殼壓力如何變化,南部的旱象確實需要雨水解渴,今年5月太平洋高壓強,導致梅雨落空,但6月上旬西南季風即將北上。

[[聲源:天氣風險公司資深顧問 吳聖宇]]
“在(6月)5號、6號開始,然後一直到月中的這段時間,大概會是西南季風逐漸北上,大概會有七到十天左右,在這一段時間之內的話,是蠻有機會會形成這個所謂的這個,典型的梅雨鋒面”

隨著6月有望解除"空梅",豐沛雨水不只能紓解旱象,或許也能幫緊繃的地殼壓力,好好降溫。

更多新聞內容,請鎖定:
民視台灣台(152頻道)週一至週五晚上9:30
民視新聞台(53頻道)週二至週六凌晨1:00

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