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Shaking approaching its end, but aftershocks possible over next few weeks: CWB

Shaking approaching its end, but aftershocks possible over next few weeks: CWB

2022-09-20

More than 160 earthquakes with magnitudes of at least 3 have rocked Taiwan since Saturday, as the foreshocks and aftershocks of a 6.8 quake on Sunday afternoon. Seismologists say the shaking is beginning to subside, and that temblors should become less and less frequent and intense over the next few days. Experts say the location for the next big earthquake could be the Chiayi-Tainan Plain, where pressure has been building up without a release for some time already.

One day before the main quake on Sunday, Taiwan was rocked by a 6.4 tremor. Initially, the Central Weather Bureau had thought that was the main shock. But as the shaking continued, and the strength didn’t weaken, seismologists realized something was up. It wasn’t until the main 6.8 quake struck on Sunday that the frequency and intensity of the tremors started going down, except for a 5.9 aftershock on Monday. The Central Weather Bureau says the end of the shaking is coming soon.

Chen Kuo-chang
Central Weather Bureau
This stretch of frequent earthquakes is coming to an end. The aftershocks will come at longer and longer intervals. But there will still be aftershocks for at least a month. Perhaps one every few days.

According to the weather bureau, 162 earthquakes of magnitudes between 3 and 6 were detected from Sept. 17 to 9 a.m. on Sept. 20. That’s excluding the main tremor.

Chen Kuo-chang
Central Weather Bureau
When the foreshock struck, I said that we wouldn’t rule out quakes of magnitude 5 in the following two or three days. If we count from the main earthquake, today is the second day. Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow could still see aftershocks of magnitude five. But the chances of that happening are quite low.

The scholar says the next place in Taiwan that may experience a strong earthquake is the Chiayi-Tainan Plain. The weather bureau says it is indeed monitoring the area closely.

Chen Kuo-chang
Central Weather Bureau
There is a high density of active faults in that area. And it has been a long time since there was any movement here. So the accumulated pressure could be quite high. There are three or four fault lines that we’re watching particularly closely. In our seismic observation work, the Chiayi-Tainan Plain is our highest priority.

The central weather bureau advises the public to remain alert for earthquakes and have the necessary preparations in place in case a big one strikes.

氣象局:地震序列接近尾聲 一個月內仍有餘震

2022-09-20

918強震至今,前前後後發生了164次的地震,讓全台都很緊張,不過氣象局說,目前餘震發生的頻率已經呈現指數型衰減,接下來餘震發生的次數就不會這麼頻繁,但一個月內都還不排除會有餘震發生。另外,有學者擔憂嘉南地區將是下一個發生大地震的地方,氣象局坦言,的確有幾個斷層是目前觀察重點。

918強震前一天,先發生規模6.4前震,氣象局一度以為就是主震,但後續震不停,而且不是逐漸減弱就察覺有異,直到規模6.8主震出現後,餘震頻率才開始呈指數型衰減,即便有一次規模達5.9,但氣象局認定,這個地震序列已經進入尾聲。

[[氣象局地震測報中心主任 陳國昌]]
“密集餘震的階段已經接近了尾聲,(餘震)會間隔比較長的時間再發生,應該至少會有一個月的時間,這個地區還會有餘震,可能好幾天才會發生一次”

根據氣象局統計,從9月17日到20日早上9點半,除了918的主震外,總計發生了162次規模3至6的前震與餘震。

[[氣象局地震測報中心主任 陳國昌]]
“前震那時候我就說,兩三天內,不排除會有規模5的,如果以主震來算,(今天)是第二天,到明天,後天,在這一兩天,我們還是不排除(有規模5餘震) ,不過機率已經相當相當低”

而有學者示警,下一個可能發生大地震的地方將是嘉南平原,氣象局也坦言,的確是目前觀察重點。

[[氣象局地震測報中心主任 陳國昌]]
“它的活動斷層分布非常密,在這個地區,而且已經有長久時間沒有錯動過,累積的能量應該是相當高,其中有三、四個(斷層) ,是我們比較特別注意的,(嘉南)是我們地震監測的重中之重”

就怕引發恐慌,氣象局點到為止,民眾得保持危機意識,隨時做好防災準備。

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