NT$6,000 handouts to have a limited effect on GDP growth: expert
NT$6,000 handouts to have a limited effect on GDP growth: expert
2023-02-01
Experts are weighing in on the government’s plan to give universal cash handouts of NT$6,000 a person from last year’s tax surplus. The amount is actually more than what was offered in economic stimulus vouchers during the COVID pandemic. But experts say that since the handouts don’t have an expiry date, they might not be able to stimulate the economy as much, raising the GDP by just 0.3% to 0.4%. Let’s hear from an economist.
Nieh Chien-chung
TKU Department of Banking and Finance
You can’t just say that handing out NT$1,000 will result in a GDP boost of 0.2%. Even then, will a NT$6,000 handout result in a boost of 1%? That’s absolutely impossible, because many people will just save the money, they’ll put it toward their savings. But the point is, it will bring about some degree of consumption. Perhaps about half of it will be spent, and that can stimulate the economy. I would say it will boost the GDP by about 0.3% or 0.4%.
The Triple Stimulus Vouchers handed out in 2020 allowed applicants to purchase NT$3,000 in time-limited vouchers by paying NT$1,000. That program boosted Taiwan’s GDP by 0.24% to 0.53%. Meanwhile, the Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers of 2021, which gave users NT$5,000 in vouchers, boosted the economy by 0.6% to 0.9%.
普發現金六千有助經濟? 學者:恐不如消費券
2023-02-01
針對全民普發6000元，有學者認為，雖然勝過於之前的3倍券、5倍券，不過在沒有使用期限、不一定要全部花光的情況下，刺激消費的效果不如消費券，預估對GDP只會增加0.3%到0.4%。
[[淡江大學財金系教授 聶建中]]
“坦白說，當然不可能說，你發1000(GDP)就會多上0.2%，然後呢，這個6000就會1點多%經濟成長，絕對不可能，為什麼呢，因為很多人會把錢放在荷包裡，這個儲蓄起來了。不過重點是，他還是會有一定的消費，大概可能會有將近一半或一半稍微弱之下的一個消費，還是會被刺激出來的，因此多多少少還是會有一個0.3%、0.4%起色吧。
事實上，以2020年3倍券來說，因為有使用期限，在強迫消費下，對國內實質GDP增加0.24%到0.53%，而2021年的5倍券也讓GDP增加0.6%到0.9%。
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