Analyst expects a sluggish first half of 2023 for Taiwan shares
Analyst expects a sluggish first half of 2023 for Taiwan shares
2023-02-03
With the Lunar New Year break behind us, many are turning back to their accounting books to make preparations for the coming year. Some say that with a slower economy and rising prices, investing may be more difficult than in previous years. One analyst says Taiwan shares will likely stay low for a while before climbing up, fluctuating between 14,000 and 17,000 points. With a string of interest rate hikes coming to an end in the second half of the year, bonds could prove to be a valuable asset in an investment portfolio. Let’s hear from the analyst.
Jeff Chang
Market analyst
It looks like the wave of interest rate hikes is nearing its end. It looks like they will go up by 25 basis points in February and again in March. But that seems to be it. In the first half of the year, the market will still be in a shocked state. But things could look up in the second half of the year, allowing for a more active approach. As for Taiwan shares, we expect them to be at around 14,000 points in the first half, before going to 15,000 or 17,000 points in the second half. Last year saw the plummeting of stocks and bonds. This year it looks like it’s going to be a balanced round. They can rebalance in the first half of the year. The first half of the year can be mainly investment-grade bonds, and then gradually incorporate more shares in the second half. In the latter half a more active approach can be adopted. It’ll likely be better next year.
Last year, a string of interest rate hikes from the Fed led to constant losses for stocks and bonds. Though that is now nearing the end, high inflation is here to stay. The analyst advises investors to take care when curating their portfolios.
投資對抗通膨! 投信業者估台股"先蹲後跳"
2023-02-03
兔年經濟趨緩，加上物價通膨嚴重，也讓民眾對投資相當關注。有投信業者就說，今年台股將先蹲後跳，指數在萬四到萬七之間來回，而今年下半年升息進入尾聲，債券也將是資產配置的一環。
[[投信業者 張錫]]
“現在看起來升息到了尾端，看起來就是今年大概2、3月各升一碼，應該就差不多要結束了。上半年的話基本上，還是在一個震盪區間的環境，下半年的景氣是比較明確的，基本上可以比較積極型地的布局。台股我們自己看，上半年大概是萬四到萬六，下半年可能是萬五到萬七。去年股債雙殺，今年股債都可以平衡布局，上半年還是股債平衡，可以比較穩健型的投資等級的(債券)為主，下半年可以慢慢股票搭配多一點，偏向稍微積極一點，到了明年應該是更好。”
去年聯準會激進升息，造成股債雙跌，雖然美國升息接近尾聲，但高通膨卻已經回不去，因此專家也建議民眾做好資產配置。
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