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PLA not yet capable of full-scale invasion: NSB chief

PLA not yet capable of full-scale invasion: NSB chief

2023-07-05

Even with tensions rising across the strait, Taiwan’s intelligence chief believes that a Chinese attack is not imminent, saying that the PLA is not yet capable of a full-scale invasion. On a political talk show, National Security Bureau head Tsai Ming-yen said China is using cognitive warfare to create fear of an impending war.

Tsai said that for China, the cost of launching a war would be extremely high, and that a full-scale landing operation would not be easy. He also said Taiwan would not surrender quickly to a missile attack or naval blockade. Although Xi Jinping wants the PLA to be able to seize Taiwan by 2027, it does not mean there’s an immediate threat, Tsai said. Once a war begins, foreign relations will deteriorate, and what happens next may not play out as Beijing expects. Tsai cited the example of the Russia-Ukraine war. Moscow had hoped to conquer Ukraine in 10 days, yet the war is still ongoing after more than a year.

台海局勢升溫 國安局長:中國發動戰爭能力還不夠

2023-07-05

針對台海情勢日漸升溫,國安局長蔡明彥受訪時表示,許多"兵兇戰危"的氣氛,都是中國刻意使用認知做戰塑造出來的,更強調中國要發動全面的侵台戰爭,能力都還不夠,中國不會輕啟戰端。

蔡明彥認為,發動戰爭成本非常高,全面登陸作戰並不容易,就算是飛彈攻擊、海上封鎖,台灣要第一時間屈服也不容易,習近平要求解放軍要在2027年建立基本武力犯台能力,不代表「馬上犯台」,這還包含政治判斷,一旦啟動戰爭機器,將惡化對外關係,也未必如劇本走,例如烏俄戰爭,原本希望十天攻克基輔,到現在496天了還在打。

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