An expert says the first quarter next year will be a good time to invest

An expert says the first quarter next year will be a good time to invest

2022-12-06

A number of factors have impacted global financial markets including inflation and war. One expert says it’s still not the time to buy or sell investments, but that next year looks set to present both opportunities. Housing prices are unlikely to drop, but those looking to buy stocks should watch the market in the first quarter, he says.

Jack Huang
Sinopac Financial Holdings chief economist
The economy and the stock market will fall, fall, fall, and will hit the bottom.

Under the impact of the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, rising interest rates, tensions in the Taiwan Strait and other geopolitical factors it’s been a dark year for the financial market.

Jack Huang
Sinopac Financial Holdings chief economist
If you have stocks now, don’t sell them. If you don’t have any stocks, you can keep waiting to buy. The three dawns are: when inflation cools, when the economy falls, and when rates stop rising.

Huang says stocks may continue down into next year, presenting a good time to invest. He says the market will start low and finish high over the course of the year, and those selling on a high may see a 25% return on investment. Meanwhile, the public has also been eyeing the real-estate market.

Jack Huang
Sinopac Financial Holdings chief economist
When it comes to housing prices, rising interest rates means prices are unlikely to fall.

The expert says that although markets will still be impacted by energy, financial and geopolitical risk factors in 2023, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, as a turn may come in the second half of the year.

危機=轉機經濟學家:明年Q1低點 Q4高點

2022-12-06

受到疫情、俄烏戰爭、高通膨、升息以及台海緊張、地緣政治等種種因素，重創投資人信心，也讓台股一度盪到谷底，甚至有不少人更看衰明年景氣，不過永豐金首席經濟學家黃蔭基卻預估明年第一季將逢低點，是進場的好時機，到第四季達到高點，報酬率上看25%。

[[永豐金首席經濟學家黃蔭基]]
“景氣跟股市都會降落、降落、降落，還會到谷底”

因為今年受疫情、俄烏戰爭、高通膨、升息以及台海緊張、地緣政治等種種因素，堪稱金融市場最黑暗的一年。

[[永豐金首席經濟學家黃蔭基]]
“現在有股不要賣，沒股可以再等待。三道曙光就是通膨降溫，然後景氣落底，然後停止升息”

明年逢低進場正是好時機，黃蔭基認為，明年股市呈現前低後高走勢，擇高點賣出，投資報酬率上看25%，除了股市，民眾也關心房市。

[[永豐金首席經濟學家黃蔭基]]
“房價這種東西，我會覺得說因為利率上升，價不容易跌”

雖然明年持續面臨能源、金融風險、地緣政治三大風險，不過下半年後，景氣反轉，投資人不必太過悲觀。

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Canada, UK voice support for assisting Taiwan

More countries besides the U.S. have recently spoken up in support of Taiwan on the international stage. Canada’s foreign minister recently announced plans to send more warships on transits of the Taiwan Strait, to make it clear to China that those are international waters. Meanwhile, the British Parliament’s Defense Select Committee Chair, says there is much to explore in boosting military assistance for Taiwan.

President Tsai Ing-wen bumps elbows with her guests as a greeting. Earlier in December, Tsai received a delegation from the U.S.-based German Marshall Fund think tank. She also sat with the chair of the British Parliament’s Defence Select Committee, Tobias Ellwood, who according to Reuters, now says there is “much to explore” in boosting military assistance for Taiwan.

According to the report, Ellwood said he had discussed Taiwan’s submarine program during his visit. He says that, although the U.S. is Taiwan’s main arms provider, the U.K. has been helping Taiwan develop its own fleet of domestically-built submarines. According to Reuters, Ellwood said the U.K. should help support Taiwan militarily, whether with weapons or intelligence sharing.

Separately, Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly said in an interview that Canada plans to dispatch more warships on transits of the Taiwan Strait to “ensure that the question of the Taiwan Strait is clear” and that “it remains an international strait.” The move is seen as a response to Chinese claims earlier this year that the strait is not international waters. Back in September, U.S. and Canadian warships carried out a routine transit of the Taiwan Strait, and it could be one of many more to come.

Chao Tien-lin
DPP lawmaker
The words by the chair of the British Parliament’s Defence Select Committee and Canada’s foreign minister both further highlight that Taiwan is a model for freedom and democracy in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s military hegemony and oppression has only served to arouse public outrage from like-minded countries, who are now helping Taiwan through diplomatic and military means. These efforts will only get bigger.

The DPP lawmaker says that countries around the world will continue supporting Taiwan as long as Beijing insists on its annexation ambitions.

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US proposes upgraded arms package with newer Patriot air-defense missiles

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The DPP’s by-election candidate shows off his campaign aesthetic, brushes off criticism

With a month left in campaigning for the Taipei legislative by-election, DPP candidate Enoch Wu on Tuesday showed off his campaign visuals, while discussing his vision for Taiwan. Wu also responded to criticism from his KMT rival, saying he could not stop others’ attacks, and would press forward. Wu also had the support of a fellow DPP member and an independent city councilor, who spoke highly of his character.

The DPP’s candidate for the Taipei legislative by-election Enoch Wu on Tuesday held a press conference to announce his campaign’s visuals.

Enoch Wu
DPP Taipei by-election candidate
It symbolizes Taiwan’s magnificence, and issues such as national security, competitiveness and internationalization. This is the core of our campaign.

Wu showed off two versions of his campaign poster, with his image framed in white and blue. He says the choice of color aims to show that issues such as national security go above party factions. In one version of the poster, his face is shown in full color, while in the other it is shown as a silhouette. At the press conference, Wu was joined by the director of his campaign office, Wang Shih-chien, and independent Taipei City Councilor Chiu Wei-chieh.

Chiu Wei-chieh
Independent Taipei city councilor
Political parties sometimes have people connected to mafias, involved in corruption or some other unfavorable forces. Meanwhile, Enoch Wu is here demonstrating moral courage, and offering suggestions that reflect his lofty personal politics. Wu is a conscientious force within the DPP. Elections are, of course, about selecting people of talent and ability.

Wang Shih-chien
DPP Taipei city councilor
When Wu lost in the last legislative election he was not discouraged. He worked resolutely at the grassroots level, and served the local community. Wu is well-prepared, and I support him. If others lob low blows at him, we will take the high ground.

Wu’s rival from the KMT, Wang Hung-wei, has recently spoken critically of her DPP opponent. Wu on Tuesday responded to her allegations.

Enoch Wu
DPP legislative by-election candidate
We can’t control our rival, or stop them from smearing us and attacking us. What we can control is to respond to such big challenges by being ourselves and acting with a clear conscience.

Wu seemed unfazed by his rival’s criticism, choosing to persist with campaign. Whether Wu’s efforts in the community have paid off or not will be seen at the polls.

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Phoenix mayor says it is an honor that TSMC is expanding in the city

Semiconductor giant TSMC is soon to hold a ceremony to mark the delivery of its first batch of equipment for its new fab in the U.S. state of Arizona. Already, the company’s logo is visible at the fab’s site, and construction is moving forward at full throttle. The mayor of Phoenix says she hopes the city welcomes TSCM, saying it hopes to create a favorable business environment for the firm.

Even from a distance, you can see the plant with construction machinery moving about. This is TSMC’s Fab 21, which is currently under construction in the U.S. state of Arizona. It will soon hold a ceremony to take receipt of its first batch of equipment, marking a milestone for Taiwan-U.S. cooperation in semiconductor manufacturing.

An excavator digs up the ground, as workers put the TSMC logo on the side of the building. Among the attendants at the upcoming ceremony are U.S. President Joe Biden, TSMC founder Morris Chang and Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan Hsiao Bi-khim. Representatives from TSMC’s main suppliers will also be present at the event.

Su Yu-hung
Chang Chun Petrochemical
We hope that these plans by TSMC will be successful, and that more clients in the semiconductor sector find our chemical products interesting. When it first started, the government encouraged Taiwanese firms like us to join in the plan.

TSMC supplier Chang Chun Petrochemical has a factory in Casa Grande, just one hour by car away from TSMC’s fab in Phoenix. In an exclusive interview with FTV, the mayor of Phoenix said that the city has experience in supplying water and electricity for semiconductor operations, as Intel already has operations in Arizona.

Kate Gallego
Phoenix mayor
It’s really an honor for us that TSMC chose to expand in Phoenix, a business-friendly city with a natural environment and wonderful universities. We plan ahead to make sure we can deliver the best business climate and conditions for TSMC.

The mayor says she hopes TSMC will bring more opportunities for Phoenix to develop. With the semiconductor giant ready to take root in the city, anticipation is in the air.

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German conductor Jun Markl talks about the themes of the NSO’s future programs

Celebrated German conductor Jun Markl has conducted several world-leading orchestras during his career. Since the start of 2022, he has been based in Taiwan, as the music director of the National Symphony Orchestra. So what’s in store for the coming year for the orchestra? FTV’s Stephany Yang takes us in for a closer look at what Markl has planned for the 2023 season.

Jun Markl became the National Symphony Orchestra’s music director in January 2022. Hailing from Germany, Markl has conducted several world-leading orchestras such as the Cleveland and Philadelphia orchestras, and the Czech Philharmonic, before taking up his current role as NSO music director. Markl revealed that the newest season for NSO will explore four major themes including nature, French music, German composer Felix Mendelssohn and Russian composer Sergei Rachmaninoff.

Jun Markl
NSO Music Director
The 2022 to 2023 season will continue the French repertoire which hadn’t played so much in the past. But this season, the 2021 and 2022 seasons we did the French repertoire of the 19th century, and now in the 2022 to 2023 season, we go into the 20th century so that means impressionistic French music.

Markl says he loves Taiwan’s natural environment, which inspired him to choose this as one of the themes of the NSO’s programs for 2023.

Jun Markl
Music Director
Nature is one of the really strong topics that we will talk about or play or make music about in the coming season. Why nature? Because I think Taiwan is a country where nature plays a big role. It’s an island surrounded by the sea. So we look also at other parts and other countries. Whether it is Japan, Europe, or different countries. Music from very different times, cultures, and mentalities.

Markl hopes to help cultivate more talents in music over the coming years by launching a training program for youths. The NSO will select around 70 young musicians aged 12 to 25 in February to attend the training program, which will be held in Miaoli County. The youth orchestra is expected to make its debut in July 2023.

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‘Minimal care’ frameworks considered at Taiwan-Japan Aging Society Forum 2022

Taiwan is forecast to officially become a “super-aged society” in 2025. Business Today magazine has held a Taiwan-Japan Aging Society Forum for the last six years. This year, old age care expert Shigeru Fujiwara inspired Taiwanese professionals with the idea of “Minimal Care” frameworks. The system encourages older adults to retain more agency later in life. Families care for older adults at home with the support of Daytime Care Centers.

The head of the Japanese Association of Daytime Care Centers, Shigeru Fujiwara, speaks via video link about “Minimal Care” frameworks.

Liang Yung-huang
Business Today magazine publisher
Traditionally, we thought that filial piety, or being a good son or daughter, meant doing everything for your parents. But that means older adults lose their capacities faster. If you let older people do everything themselves, then they have agency and can take care of themselves until the day they die. Everyone should be psychologically prepared for that in our aging society.

The figures suggest Taiwan will officially become a ‘super-aged society’ in 2025. Taiwan is also facing a crisis in care for older adults, people with dementia, and healthcare.

Liang Yung-huang
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The aging of society creates more healthcare requirements, including dementia and long-term care. I think Taiwan is not sufficiently prepared for that. Our government and society should all be proactively turning toward the issues of an aged society.

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A big reason for aging is that our body is in a state of chronic inflammation, and perhaps our digestive tract isn’t healthy. So we recommend that people take extra anti-inflammatory foods, such as nuts, fish oils and deep sea fish which contain omega oils. And there are lots of fruit and vegetables containing different phytochemicals.

This nutritionist recommends that older adults consume extra probiotics and dietary fiber to maintain good digestive health, which will help keep you feeling stronger for longer.

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