Experts predict change in government’s housing policy

Experts predict change in government’s housing policy

2024-01-15

As dust settles on the 2024 election, experts are predicting changes in the government’s housing policy. President-elect Lai Ching-te may rethink his predecessor’s anti-speculation crackdown. According to real-estate experts, the 2024 election indicates failure in the DPP’s approach to speculation. But Lai is expected to continue current housing subsidies, and potentially even expand them.

Lee Tung-jung
Real estate broker association
The Lai administration will basically continue three policies from the Tsai administration. He’ll continue rental subsidies and perhaps even increase them.

Days after the election, experts are weighing in on the outcome’s impact on the housing market. President-elect Lai Ching-te is expected to continue the Tsai administration’s generous housing subsidies, ban on pre-sale transfers, and policy of strict market regulation. But a big U-turn could be coming on the government’s speculation crackdown.

Lee Tung-jung
Real estate broker association
Right now the anti-speculation policies include Version 2 of the anti-hoarding policy. Basically all the policies that could be put in place have been enacted. It would seem as if these anti-speculation measures would be well-received by young people. But actually, that has not been the case at all. Young adults still can’t afford to buy or rent. In other words, we need a review of policies affecting young people’s ability to buy and rent a home.

The expert says that if Lai wants to regain support from young voters, he must tackle core issues such as high housing prices, the rental black market, social housing, and loans for young people. To control high housing prices, the government must target root issues to promote balanced regional development.

Hsu Chia-hsin
Real estate expert
The housing market won’t change much as a whole. But it is worth noting that, since the Tsai administration had policies that focused on central and southern Taiwan, we expect overall performance in those areas to be stronger than before.

Lee Tung-jung
Real estate broker association
This year’s housing market can be described in two words. The first one is “changing.” That is the market could change from bullish to bearish. The second is “flattening,” meaning that instead of falling, the market will flatten. Transaction volume may rise slightly, but prices will stay flat.

The expert expects that this year, market volatility will be minor, and that the greatest risks will continue to be geopolitical tensions and cross-strait relations. A mixed year lies ahead, he said, adding that a careful but not pessimistic approach is in order.

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贏回年輕選票? 房仲業預測"選後房市政策"恐大轉彎

2024-01-15

2024總統終於落幕，不過執政黨國會席次未過半，未來的政策制定，勢必要透過政黨協商取得共識，針對選後房市走勢，專家預測，新政府將保守控管房產市場、延續蔡英文的補貼政策，不過大選結局，年輕選票大幅流失，也顯示住宅政策失敗，因此在打房和住宅政策上，恐怕出現大轉彎。

[[房仲公會全聯會榮譽理事長李同榮]]
“賴政府上來以後，大概有三樣會沿襲，大概是蔡英文的既有的政策，他會沿襲租賃租金的補貼的部分，而且可能還會再加碼”

大選激情褪去，專家從準總統賴清德，提出的住宅政策，分析房市新局，在保守遵循蔡政府的補貼利多、禁轉政策，嚴格控管房市之外，打房政策，恐怕來個大轉彎。

[[房仲公會全聯會榮譽理事長李同榮]]
“現在打房政策，除了既有的囤房稅2.0以外，大概該用的招數也都用了，我們打房就是好像是要打，打了以後那年輕人看爽，其實年輕人一點都不爽，因為他買不起、租不起，也就是說讓年輕人在居住跟租賃上面，要徹底去檢討這一方面的政策”

專家點出，賴清德想找出年輕選票流失的關鍵，就要釐清房價高漲的核心因素，解決租賃黑市、實質增加社宅數量，優化新青安貸款，照顧剛需買盤，不過要想治本、抑制房價，就要達到區域均衡發展。

[[房產專家徐佳馨]]
“(房市)整體的大格局並不會改變，那另外來說值得注意的是，由於這幾年蔡政府，她對於中南部的著墨相對比較高，所以可能預期南部他的整體的表現，或許可能會比過去來的更加的強勢”

[[房仲公會全聯會榮譽理事長李同榮]]
“我只有用兩個字來註解今年的房市，第一個就是"變"，所謂變就是由多變空、偏空，所謂"盤"就是以盤代跌，所以量會溫，但是價會盤”

按房地產既有的技術循環軌道來看，行情波動不大，但地緣政治干擾，兩岸關係仍是房市最大灰犀牛，專家認為，儘管利弊參半，需要審慎看待，但也不悲觀。

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Building on the foundation laid by President Tsai Ing-wen, we will continue to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. We also hope that the U.S. will continue to support Taiwan and deepen mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation in various fields.

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This story was provided by the program "We Are Family"
Funded by New Immigrant Development Fund

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