Chips, AI will continue to drive markets in H2: analysts

Chips, AI will continue to drive markets in H2: analysts

2024-07-04

The AI frenzy has driven Taiwan stocks to new heights, but is the rally due for a reality check? Looking ahead to the second half of the year, analysts are optimistic that AI and semiconductors will continue to be a key driver for the Taiex. But traders are advised to watch risks tied to the U.S. presidential election and interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The global AI boom shows no signs of abating. Taiwan’s AI supply chain is benefiting, sending the stock market to new highs. But can the Taiex sustain its momentum?

Charles Hsiao
Fubon Securities Investment Services Co. chair
We’re estimating a range between 23,800 and 24,000 points. In the second half of the year, the semiconductor and AI industries, as well as certain individual stocks, will likely continue to be the focus.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, an analyst says that key factors for global markets will be the U.S. presidential election, geopolitical developments, and the U.S. Fed’s monetary policies.

Rick Lo
Fubon Financial chief economist
In July, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will go to the Senate to deliver his semiannual monetary policy report. Then at the end of August, the annual global central banking conference will be convened. These are the two moments to watch. We believe that rate cuts will be initiated this year, by a range of 25 to 50 basis points.

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a rate cut this year. Holders of U.S. Treasury Bonds are especially eager to see a disinflationary path. Analysts calculate that with a 20-year Treasury Bond, a 1% rate cut would bring gains of nearly 17%, although exchange rates must also be factored in.

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展望下半年台股走勢專家:聚焦AI.半導體供應鏈

2024-07-04

受惠人工智慧，台股指數不斷創高，展望下半年，專家認為，美國總統大選，以及美國聯準會的貨幣政策走向等等，都將影響全球股市，而各界認為今年聯準會降息機率很高，尤其有購買美債的民眾，更是希望早點降息。

全球AI熱潮持續發酵，台灣人工智慧供應鏈跟著受惠推升股市，指數不斷創高，投資人關心，台股還能不能續強?

[[富邦投顧董事長蕭乾祥]]
“(預估) 23800點到24000這個中間。那麼整體來講，整個下半年，在半導體跟AI方面的，整個產業趨勢的發展，還有個股的一個反應，大概還是一個重點”

展望下半年，專家認為，美國總統大選、地緣政治，以及Fed的貨幣政策走向，都是影響全球股市的關鍵因素。

[[富邦金首席經濟學家羅瑋]]
“7月份鮑爾要到參議院，發表半年度的經濟展望的報告，8月底是全球央行年會，所以在這裡大家可以密切關注，這兩個關鍵時間點。我們認為是說，今年他們會啟動降息，所以說今年的幅度大概一到兩碼之間”

各界認為今年聯準會降息機率很高，尤其有購買美債的民眾，更是希望早點降息。分析師解釋，以20年公債為準來計算，平均降息1%，可以獲取資本利得的報酬率，將近17%，但要考慮匯率因素。

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Government to further ease rules for hiring foreign caregivers

The government plans to further relax its rules for hiring foreign caregivers. As early as September, it will exempt three groups of people aged 80 and up from passing a test based on the Barthel Index, which measures the ability to perform everyday tasks. This policy comes after waivers were extended last October to people suffering from dementia, those with breathing or swallowing difficulties, and those who have received long-term care for at least six months.

With a declining birth rate and an aging population, more people are set to grow old without family support. Yet hiring a caregiver can be challenging. In most cases, it’s contingent on passing a Barthel Index assessment.

Member of public
The first time it was more difficult, because my mother was under 80 years old. They should have relaxed the requirements earlier, and this policy should enter effect as soon as possible. If a caregiver can’t be found, we’re forced to sacrifice their careers to look after our elders. This comes with a huge social cost.

Ministry of Labor says it will further ease requirements for hiring a foreign caregiver. It will exempt three groups of people from a Barthel Index assessment: Those at least 80 years old and who have a long history of medical conditions, who have disabilities due to irreversible medical conditions, or who have disabilities and a history of medical visits in remote areas. The exemption will enter effect as early as September, benefiting 55,000 people.

Wu Hsi-wen
Ministry of Health and Welfare
We will continue to optimize the evaluation process for those who need professional evaluation. Anyone who needs it, regardless of age, can apply for a home evaluation. This also applies to people living in remote areas and people who can’t go to a medical center due to severe conditions.

The health ministry endorsed the change. The Barthel Index requirement has long been criticized for being too strict. Based on the Barthel scale, a higher score reflects a higher degree of independence. To qualify for full-day care, people under 80 years old can score no more than 35 points, or get a doctor’s authorization if they exceed it. People aged 80 and up must hit the Barthel standard for “severe dependency.” As for people aged 85 and up, they must meet the standard for a “mild dependency.”

Chang Shin-fang
Taiwan Adventist Hospital neurologist
People with physical disabilities or conditions like Parkinson’s or other degenerative motor diseases can apply if the individual is considered to have a severe disability. We doctors conduct a detailed assessment of their condition and their physical state. If we feel that the individual meets the criteria, in principle, we follow the established process to handle their case.

Voice of Wu Ching-ju
International migrant issues researcher
Caring for people with severe conditions requires labor, and not just one person. It’s not something that can be done by one person alone. So what can we do? If we are still not tackling the core issues, how can families in more difficult positions benefit from the loosening of rules?

With an aging population, elder care and caregiver issues are demanding urgent government action.

For more Taiwan news, tune in:
Sun to Fri at 9:30 pm on Channel 152
Tue to Sat at 1 am on Channel 53

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Taiwanese family sets up tennis camp for Ukrainian refugees in Romania

A Taiwanese family based in Romania has set up an initiative to support Ukrainian refugees through sport. The family of Warren Chang is running a summer tennis camp for Ukrainian refugees in Romania. Over three months, a local tennis coach is helping Ukrainian children get to grips with the sport. Some of the children have relatives serving in the Ukrainian army, and the shadow of the war hangs heavily over their summer. But with support from their Taiwanese friends, tennis can be a way to unwind and let off steam.

The coach holds a racquet and demonstrates a basic stance. The children line up, eager to give it a try.

He throws balls for them to take a swing. The kids are complete beginners and not yet in their groove, but that doesn’t stop them having fun.

Almost all the children are refugees from Ukraine who are currently in Romania. They’ve found a temporary harbor here, but are still in urgent need of support. The family of Warren Chang, from Taiwan, has set up a summer tennis camp for refugees here in Romania, to give these young people a chance to enjoy sport this summer.

Warren Chang
Tennis camp founder
I created a tennis camp for Ukrainian refugees in Romania. So thank you so much to all of the donors who donated tennis racquets, balls and even money to fund this camp.

Camp participant
It’s really interesting. We can find new friends and have a good time.

Tennis coach
We started with total beginners, and I hope, after these 10-11 weeks, to see them in the end to play tennis.

The tennis coach is happy to take the learners at a slow and steady pace. For kids whose fathers are in the Ukrainian army, sport can be therapeutic.

Camp participant
Stay in different cities, and now he’s in the military. I don’t know.

Local resident
I prefer my family to be in Romania and safe.

While the horrors of war continue to unfold, ordinary people are reaching out to support each other across national borders. This Taiwanese family’s initiative is helping refugees learn a new skill, and bringing a ray of joy into the darkest hour of these children’s lives.

For more Taiwan news, tune in:
Sun to Fri at 9:30 pm on Channel 152
Tue to Sat at 1 am on Channel 53

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AI-powered scan gives insights on stress levels, heart rate, and more

Artificial intelligence is changing the game in many industries, including medical care. A new application allows for a full-body checkup with just a visual scan on any camera-enabled device. A quick scan gives readings on the user’s stress level, blood pressure, heart rate, and bone density. But how accurate is it really? Let’s find out.

She looks into the camera and stands still for one minute. She’s not posing for a photo, but getting an AI-powered physical exam.

Tang Shih-ching
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Using facial recognition technology, the AI assessed my health, giving me a rating of 60%, which is just above a passing grade. I can also see my stress index, which is at a normal level. I also got readings on my blood pressure, body mass index, heart rate and more.

Compared with the readings from a blood pressure monitor, the AI-generated results were just one digit off. The AI health check also showed that the reporter, who was fresh back from vacation, had normal stress levels. In comparison, the stress values of a speaker who had just given a presentation were off the charts.

Another health check measures body fat and bone condition. Developers say the AI technology can be used by businesses to look after their workers’ health and improve employee welfare.

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The first time I used it, my stress value was quite high. After I started taking care of my sleep, I managed to improve my stress levels, and the reading fell.

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We hope to tackle a challenge that Taiwanese companies have faced in recent years. That is, setbacks such as low participation in employee welfare programs. We hope that using this technology, employees can quickly see their health status using a smartphone, iPad or any other device with a camera. They can routinely monitor their own physical and mental health.

The AI system can provide workers with a detailed health summary, while offering expert advice and links to resources to address problems.

For more Taiwan news, tune in:
Sun to Fri at 9:30 pm on Channel 152
Tue to Sat at 1 am on Channel 53

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Mister International Taiwan 2024 kicks off

Mister International Taiwan is back for its second year, with 43 contestants proceeding to the preliminary round out 77 applicants applied. The participants include models, police officers, doctors, engineers, and influencers. FTV reporter Stephany Yang met the contestants to find out more about why they decided to sign up.

He walks down the runway, sharing his life motto.

Mister International Taiwan is back in action. A total of 77 contestants signed up, resulting in 43 shortlisted contestants who come from all walks of life. There are police officers, doctors, engineers, spokespersons, free-diving instructors, and more. They all work hard to keep fit, practice their talents and runway walks for the competition. Some contestants even tried intermittent fasting.

Yang lin
Contestant
When I learned about this event, do you know what intermittent fasting is? I hardly ate. I wanted to participate this time because everyone thinks that engineers are geeks, and perhaps think they are gamers who stay at home and watch anime. I want to use this opportunity of Mister International Taiwan to help everyone change this image of geeks.

Yu Wen-wei
Contestant
When I signed up, I was already working out vigorously. I lost 6 kilograms. When we police officers are on duty, we work at least 12 hours. I will still go to the gym, practice dancing, and my talent after work.

Leon Wu
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I am a free diving snorkeling instructor. I wanted to participate in Mister International Taiwan this time because I want to get out of my comfort zone and challenge myself.

The preliminary round included a fashion show, a swimsuit show, and a Q&A segment. Five contestants will be selected to represent Taiwan at the Mister Friendship International Competition in December.

Joe Kampol Thongchai
Mister Friendship International president
We decided to be here in December because of the culture, the landscape, the city, the people, and the food. There are so many things that Taiwan can offer to candidates from around the world.

The Mister Friendship International will hold its global finals in Taiwan in December this year. Representatives from over 30 countries will compete for the crown.

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