Fed signals easing cycle, expert sees 100-basis point cut by March
Fed signals easing cycle, expert sees 100-basis point cut by March
2024-08-01
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its interest rates steady on Wednesday, but it did signal a possible rate cut in September. Let’s hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Jerome Powell
US Federal Reserve chair
The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market. If that testis met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as our next policy meeting in September.
Edward Chen
First Capital Management chair
Bond ETF traders can slowly start positioning, because it looks like the end of September will be a turning point. If rates are slashed by 100 basis points, the S&P may drop by 3% to 4%. Traders may want to keep that in mind. That is to say, if we start approaching 100 basis points by March, we may see a shift from stocks to bonds.
According to the analyst, the Fed is well-placed to cut rates by a full percentage point by next March. If that happens, capital is expected to shift toward the bond market. Traders are advised to beware of slowing momentum in the stock market.
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聯準會9月有望降息? 專家:降到第4碼時注意"股轉債"
2024-08-01
美國聯準會主席鮑爾，釋出鴿派言論，暗示正接近控制通膨目標，九月有望降息，投資人也關注後續市場效應。
[[美國聯準會主席 鮑爾]]
“問題在於數據整體性、前景變化和風險平衡，是否對通膨的信心增強，及保持穩固的勞動力市場一致。如果達到這個標準，我們可能在九月下一次會議上，考慮調降利率。”
[[第一金投顧董事長 陳奕光]]
“ETF債券的投資人來看的話，你就可以慢慢的佈局，因為目前看起來九月底之前的話，應該是一個佈局點。(降到第4碼) S&P500是跌3到4個百分點，所以這個地方，可能投資人要留意，就是說，當它啟動在降入第4碼的過程裡面，就是明年的三月份，那個時間點的話，可能就會有股轉債。”
專家分析，聯準會降三碼前，還能做多股市，來到明年三月、降到第四碼的過程中，資金會開始轉向債券市場，同時在經濟放緩的情況下，要留意股市動能不足。
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