Gold price expected to exceed US$2,600 by year’s end
Gold price expected to exceed US$2,600 by year’s end
2024-09-02
Back in mid-August the price of gold hit US$2,508 per ounce. Two weeks later, it continued soaring to a fresh high of US$2,527. Jewelers say they expect the price to break past US$2,600. The factors at play include trends for de-dollarization, and wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
As gold prices continue rising, consumer preferences are changing at jewelry shops.
Last week, the international price of gold reached a record high of US$2,527 per ounce. That’s about NT$10,140 per Taiwanese mace — or 3.75 grams. Since 2017, the price of gold has taken a hit in the month of September. Will the September curse strike again this year?
Cheng Ju-fang
Jeweler
Generally speaking, when there is a decrease in gold jewelry sales, it means buyers are probably opting for bars or nuggets instead. Some countries are considering de-dollarization, and China, Russia and many countries in Europe are set to buy large amounts of gold. I think we’ll see US$2,600 per ounce by year’s end.
The jeweler says de-dollarization is a factor that’s pushing up gold prices constantly. In the past six months, the price of gold has shot up from US$1,994 per ounce on Feb. 15 to US$2,527 per ounce on Aug. 30. Though the price fell back somewhat on Monday, an expert from the Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance expects the rally to continue.
Lin Chang-hsing
Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start a rate-cutting cycle in September, and may lower interest rates by a full percentage point by the end of the year. That has caused the U.S. dollar to slide. Central banks are holding on to gold not as a short-term measure, but as a long-term holding. So foreign institutional investors are saying that if gold falls below US$2,500 per ounce, it’s a good point to buy in, and not to sell out.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, a move that could drive the U.S. dollar down, and gold up. Considering the big price differences between gold jewelry and gold bars, it’s best to consider trends thoroughly before buying in.
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金價站穩2500美元? 每錢一度突破台幣10140元
2024-09-02
八月中旬，國際金價曾站上每盎司2508美元，沒想到才過兩星期已經來到2527美元!每錢一度突破新台幣1萬0140元。有銀樓業者分析，這波漲勢除了烏俄戰爭和以巴衝突影響，還跟"去美元化"有關，因此業者認為，年底前有機會上看每盎司2600美元。
黃金漲個不停，就連民眾到銀樓，喜好也跟著不同。
因為國際金價上週來到最高每盎司2527美元，每台錢衝破10140元，但是從2017年以來，每年金價在9月都會下跌，今年有可能打破魔咒嗎？
[[銀樓業者 鄭如芳]]
“如果說一般這種飾品的金飾銷量有相對的減少，買飾品的人都會覺得說，那我還不如買一個小金塊、小金豆。國際上有一個說法就是說，要去美元化，那中國跟俄國跟歐洲，很多國家他們會大量的買黃金，我覺得在年底應該很容易看到2600(美元)。”
業者分析，去美元化也是黃金漲勢不斷的一大原因，攤開半年來黃金走勢，從2/15的1994美元，一路飆漲，8/30衝上最高2527美元，雖然周一金價小小回落，但是專家仍看好黃金的長線走勢。
[[台灣金融培訓協會理事長 林昌興]]
“聯準會預計9月份啟動降息循環之下，今年度可能降息四碼，造成了美元報價，其實直接的滑落。所謂的全球的央行持有的黃金並不是短線操作，而是準備長期的持有，因此外資法人持續的提出，如果黃金跌破2500美元，是一個好的加碼點，而不是出場點。”
今年九月美國聯準會有機會降息，連帶讓美元指數回落，帶動黃金漲幅，但提醒投資人買金飾和金條成本大不同，想要投資保本，買甚麼得多思量。
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