AmCham Taiwan, researchers optimistic about Taiwan’s economy in 2025
AmCham Taiwan, researchers optimistic about Taiwan’s economy in 2025
2025-01-16
US President-elect Donald Trump will soon take office on Jan. 20, just before Taiwan’s stock market closes for the Lunar New Year holidays. That leaves only a few days for observers to watch the initial effects of Trump 2.0 on Taiwan’s economy. Although economic prospects remain optimistic at the time being, with projected annual GDP growth at 3.22%, experts say it all depends on how exactly Trump plans to implement his proposed tariffs.
Dan Silver
AmCham Taiwan chair
Our members expressed significant amounts of confidence in the future economic growth in Taiwan, as well as their own revenue and company prospects in Taiwan for the coming 12 months and the coming three years.
The chair of Amcham Taiwan, Dan Silver says US investors in Taiwan remain optimistic of economic prospects here, despite rising cross-strait tensions. On the contrary, geopolitical shifts have prompted 17% of its members to expand operations in Taiwan.
Dan Silver
AmCham Taiwan chair
We do know that in a bilateral trade agreement, tariffs would be enshrined at a lower level in a permanent way. So I think that that’s a kind of proxy for seeing the desire for continued, unimpeded trade between the United States and Taiwan on all levels.
With Donald Trump soon to become US president, his looming tariffs may well affect Taiwan-US bilateral trade. Over 70% of AmCham members agree that a double taxation agreement between the US and Taiwan would be necessary in offsetting the increased costs.
Wang Chien-chuan
Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research
If Trump were to apply blanket tariffs, then of course that will have a greater impact on Taiwan. But it seems like he’s starting with a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, meaning he’s imposing tariffs in a way that gives him leverage in negotiations.
Lien Hsien-ming
Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research
It’s hard to say whether he’ll impose the target rates at once or incrementally. Internationally speaking, IC products are almost free of taxation. We’re watching whether Trump changes this or not.
Researchers at the Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research put Taiwan’s projected GDP growth in 2025 at 3.22% and inflation at 1.91%, which is rather optimistic. But seeing that most of the growth is driven by the tech sector, Taiwan may have to diversify its industries to de-risk under a new global order.
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台灣"美國商會"看好今年 中經院估經濟成長率破3%
2025-01-16
農曆年前，台股封關倒數，隨著1/20川普重返白宮，全球經濟局勢，又將再起變化，不過台灣美國商會針對2025年商業景氣調查發現，有超過8成的成員，對台灣未來一年景氣充滿信心，中經院也指出，未來一年，經濟成長率，樂觀看望達3.22%。
[[台灣美國商會會長 銀丹]]
“我們的成員表明了，對於台灣未來的經濟增長，和未來12個月及未來3年的企業成績，有十足的信心”
展望2025年商業景氣，台灣美國商會，充滿信心，即便去年台海局勢緊張加劇，並對台美兩國貿易，似乎沒有帶來重大影響，但仍有四成公司持續修訂營運計畫，應對地緣政治，更有17%增加對台投資。
[[台灣美國商會會長 銀丹]]
“我們確實知道，雙邊貿易協定中的關稅，將永久維持在較低的水平，所以我認為這可以體現出美國在台灣，在各個層面上對繼續保持暢通無阻的貿易的渴望”
眼看川普即將在1/20重返白宮，對外徵收關稅玩真的，是否衝擊台美貿易？有超過七成台美商會會員認為，雙邊貿易協定，對業務發展有關鍵影響，認同雙重課稅協議的必要性。
[[中經院副院長 王健全]]
“(川普)他是用通用性的，一次性的加徵的話，那當然對臺灣的衝擊，會比較大一點，但是現在他看起來，對墨西哥跟加拿大課25%的關稅，代表就是說他可能是選擇性的運用，就是一個策略談判的手段”
[[中經院院長 連賢明]]
“他是不是真的，稅率是一次到位，還是逐步的去調整。這些IC產品國際上面，是基本上免稅的，那川普會不會去改變這些狀況，都是我們在後續觀察的關鍵”
中經院也預測，2025年經濟成長率約3.22%、CPI1.91%，但台灣半導體的自主性，以及面對產業發展不均，如何找到第二座護國神山，仍是隱憂。
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