A YouTuber tests the odds of winning on scratch tickets

A YouTuber tests the odds of winning on scratch tickets

2023-01-10

It’s common for people in Taiwan to buy scratch tickets and lotto tickets ahead of the Lunar New Year, but many may be unaware of the odds. One YouTuber decided to test the odds for himself, buying a booklet of NT$2,000 tickets with friends and sharing the results with viewers. YouTuber Waiting Liu and his friends lost half of what they spent on the tickets, but it turns out their luck was actually better than the average odds. Let’s take a look at just how much you can expect to win from a scratch ticket.

YouTuber Waiting Liu and his friends put together NT$36,000 to buy a book of 18 scratch tickets. Six of the tickets were duds, but there were two winning tickets worth NT$5,000 each, three worth NT$2,000 each and seven worth NT$1,000 each. That means the group of friends paid out NT$13,000 in losses.

Member of the public
I once spent roughly NT$20,000 on tickets and got less than half of that back, but it was just for fun.

Member of the public
I don’t look at the odds of winning when I buy scratch tickets, I just grab whatever catches my eye. If you’re an unlucky person, buy a few tickets and you’ll lose money.

If you hope to win from scratch tickets, don’t just look at the odds of winning. For example, the overall odds for winning a prize on the “NT$20 Million Super Red Envelope,” which costs NT$2,000, are 69.33%. But with prizes as low as $1,000 or NT$500, winning a prize could still result in losses for the buyer. To break even, you’d need a NT$2,000 prize, but the odds of winning that amount are only 29.33%. If you want to walk away with even modest winnings – for example, a winning ticket worth NT$5,000 – the odds go down to only 10.29%. In truth 70.67% of the time buyers will end up losing money on the tickets.

Huang Wei-chi
Lotto ticket seller
There are lots of people who buy an entire book. We’ve already gotten about 100 people who each want to buy a book, so they reserve that with us. They’re afraid that if they don’t get the book and the NT$20 million winning ticket is inside, they’ll lose out.

So what ticket should you buy if you’re hoping for the big win? Buyers have several choices of tickets ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The “NT$20 Million Super Red Envelope,” which costs NT$2,000 has an expected value of negative 25, which means that for every NT$100 spent, there will be an expected loss of NT$25. There is also the NT$500 “Golden Rabbit Awards” with an expected value of negative 32, and two types of NT$100 ticket: the “Best Wishes for the Year of the Rabbit” and the “God of Wealth Welcomes Spring,” each with an expected value of negative 38.02.

狂刮整本2000元刮刮樂網紅實測回本率不到3成？

2023-01-10

彩迷期待已久的台彩「2，000萬超級紅包」終於來了，不只頭獎2000萬有七個，二獎休旅車有10輛，但YouTuber實測發現，想要回本，就至少要刮中2千元，算一算回本機率只剩下不到3成，賠錢機率很高。

網紅YouTuber劉騏樂，與好友集資3萬6千元，在彩券行買了18張刮刮樂，最後戰績出爐，18張有6張沒中獎，刮中的獎項5000元兩張、2，000元3張、1000元7張，中獎率6成，但最終還是以賠了1萬3千元收場。

[[民眾]]
“之前買個1、2萬，回本都不到50%，就刮個開心而已”

[[民眾]]
“我不太會去看那個(中獎率)，我都看順眼就拿起來刮了，再衰的人，你挑幾張都會賠錢”

原來刮刮樂想賺錢，不能只看中獎率，以2000元刮刮樂為例，中獎機率高達69.33%，但中500、1000也還是賠。因此，想要回本的話，至少得刮中2千元，機率下降到29.33%。若想以小搏大，至少要刮中5千元，機率瞬間只剩下10.29%，也就是說賠本機率，高達70.67%。

[[彩券行業者黃偉祺]]
“買整本的人非常多，像我們現在已經接了100個客人想要買整本，幫他們預約，怕大獎2000萬會在裡面，它會不見”

民眾到底怎樣，才能最接近財神， 6大兔年限定款，排名第一的，是「2000萬超級紅包」期望值為負25，也就是花100元會賠25元，至於100%會中獎的500元「金兔獎」，期望值為負32，只排第二，而兩款100元的「兔年行大運」和「財神迎春」，期望值為負38.02，則是排在墊底，也最有可能賠錢。

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Chinese forces were unable to conquer the island, and Taiwan endured as an autonomous democracy.

Concerned about the possible outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies designed a war game to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026, which it ran 24 times in a variety of scenarios. China failed to take over Taiwan in nearly every scenario, and its forces sustained heavy losses.

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China also took terrible losses, often including more than a hundred warships, and tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded or captured. Such a failure might endanger the communist party’s grip on power.

CSIS said that a failed attempt at invading Taiwan may cause the collapse of the CCP, but the U.S. and Japan would also sustain heavy losses during the battle.

Voice of Mark Cancian
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In four weeks of fighting the United States typically lost hundreds of aircraft, two aircraft carriers and up to 2,000 other ships. Bases on Guam were devastated. The Taiwanese economy suffered extensive damage. Japan was often dragged into the war, and its bases attacked.

Taiwan’s military would also see the loss of roughly 3,500 soldiers, four destroyers and 22 coast guard vessels, but it would not suffer defeat. CSIS says that the first priority is to ensure that Taiwan is well armed. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is surrounded by the sea, meaning that overland logistical support is not possible. Once fighting begins, it will difficult for allies to provide Taiwan with assistance, it said.

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It runs out typically within the first couple of days, and then when that runs out the United States has to use shorter-range munitions. Those can be effective, but it increases losses, and increases risk.

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Tech company announces year-end bonus of 30 months’ salary

The Lunar New Year is approaching, which for many employees means it’s time to get their year-end bonuses. One tech company has announced a year-end bonus of 30 months’ pay. Another is giving out bonuses of more than NT$1 million to all employees who’ve been with the company for at least a year.

Captain America shows up on the second floor. He’s joined by Spiderman, Optimus Prime from “The Transformers” and Superman. It’s a year-end banquet like before the pandemic. While feasts like these can be fun, what employees really want to know is how big a bonus they’ll be getting for the Lunar New Year.

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Don’t forget that year-end bonuses reflect the company’s performance over the previous year. So it’s a lagging indicator. So for the tech sector there could be some worries about inventories and weak demand in the first half of the year. That could also affect the willingness of tech firms to increase wages.

According to a job bank survey, tech firms on average are set to issue a 1.89 months’ of salary as a bonus before the Lunar New Year. That’s in contrast with 2.56 months in the finance sector. With poor export performance in the fourth quarter of 2022, and a slowing economy, salary hikes are not a given. There are some exceptions. Semiconductor IC testing interface firm WinWay says it will be handing out a bonus worth 30 months’ of salary, together with a wage hike of 40%. Meanwhile, semiconductor manufacturer Realtek, which already issued bonuses in October, will reportedly be giving out more than NT$1 million to employees who’ve been in the company for at least one year. Over in the telecommunications industry, a company is raising salaries by 12% to retain talent.

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The hike is bigger this year, because of the reasons I just mentioned. The pandemic was a hard time for our employees. And now with inflation, and a shrinking workforce, it’s getting harder and harder to find workers. So that’s why we decided to raise salaries, to attract more talented workers.

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