US-based think tank conducts Taiwan-attack simulations, showing Chinese defeat

US-based think tank conducts Taiwan-attack simulations, showing Chinese defeat

2023-01-10

In a set of 24 simulated scenarios conducted by Washington-based think tank CSIS, Chinese attempts at invading of Taiwan nearly always end in China’s defeat. In most cases the scenarios finished with the survival of Taiwan’s autonomy, but with heavy losses endured by the U.S. and Japan. The think tank said that to ensure a better outcome, the U.S. must better equip Taiwan, allowing it to defend itself. Let’s hear from a senior CSIS advisor.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
Chinese forces were unable to conquer the island, and Taiwan endured as an autonomous democracy.

Concerned about the possible outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies designed a war game to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026, which it ran 24 times in a variety of scenarios. China failed to take over Taiwan in nearly every scenario, and its forces sustained heavy losses.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
China also took terrible losses, often including more than a hundred warships, and tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded or captured. Such a failure might endanger the communist party’s grip on power.

CSIS said that a failed attempt at invading Taiwan may cause the collapse of the CCP, but the U.S. and Japan would also sustain heavy losses during the battle.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
In four weeks of fighting the United States typically lost hundreds of aircraft, two aircraft carriers and up to 2,000 other ships. Bases on Guam were devastated. The Taiwanese economy suffered extensive damage. Japan was often dragged into the war, and its bases attacked.

Taiwan’s military would also see the loss of roughly 3,500 soldiers, four destroyers and 22 coast guard vessels, but it would not suffer defeat. CSIS says that the first priority is to ensure that Taiwan is well armed. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is surrounded by the sea, meaning that overland logistical support is not possible. Once fighting begins, it will difficult for allies to provide Taiwan with assistance, it said.

Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
It runs out typically within the first couple of days, and then when that runs out the United States has to use shorter-range munitions. Those can be effective, but it increases losses, and increases risk.

Mark Milley
Joint Chiefs of Staff chair
As long as we remain number one, then we will deter the war that people worry about. A great-power war, between China and the United States.

Su Tzu-yun
Institute for National Defense and Security Research
The U.S. and Japan will help defend Taiwan, but the U.S. should immediately strengthen Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, and should put a stop to China’s military expansion. In the future, Taiwan may have around 2,000 anti-ship missiles, which will effectively prevent Chinese vessels from landing on Taiwan, and limiting the threat from its convoy.

CSIS suggests that the U.S. provide Taiwan with inexpensive weapons systems, better enabling it to protect itself.