Taiwan’s GDP growth to drop below 1.91%: think tank

2023-03-22

A leading think tank has released a gloomy economic picture for the year ahead. The Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute expects GDP growth to contract to just 1.91% in 2023. This projection is lower than the central bank’s estimate of 2.53%, and the statistics agency’s estimate of 2.12%. The think tank cited faltering demand in manufacturing and exports, amid aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. ##

Jerome Powell
Fed chairman
Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go, and is likely to be bumpy.

Two weeks ago, the U.S. Federal Reserve reaffirmed its hawkish stance, saying it was committed to getting inflation back below 2%. But since then, crises at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have put the Fed in a precarious position, in which it must balance inflation control with calming the financial markets. With all eyes on the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, the reaction of Taiwan’s central bank has also come under focus.

Charles Yeh
Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute head
The U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates by 4.25 percentage points last year, and the repercussions will first be felt by the financial market. The economic downturn will accelerate, and the unemployment rate will rise. It could take one or two years or more to recover. In the second half of this year, the U.S. will likely maintain its current stance as it monitors the market. If it does lower interest rates, it would more likely do so next year.

Aggressive rate hikes have been felt in the global economy, with Taiwan’s GDP contracting by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. For the year 2023, Taiwan’s statistics agency forecasts growth of 2.12%, while the central bank estimates 2.53%. But the Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute is less optimistic, projecting just 1.91%. Manufacturing and exports will face strong pressure and inventory adjustments. The government should roll out support and stimulus measures to cushion the blow, it says.

Charles Yeh
Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute head
Service prices have risen, and we need to monitor the effects of the April power price hike. Exports dropped by about 18% in the previous two months. The central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates this quarter. The upcoming cash handouts and rent – and some other subsidies – these measures can boost the GDP, to an extent.

Experts say the upcoming NT$6,000 cash handout will lift the GDP by 0.2 percentage points. They say such measures can help shield Taiwan against the headwinds of inflation and rising interest rates.

美聯準是否升息受矚目台今年GDP拚保2

2023-03-22

聯準會是否升息，就看台灣時間23號凌晨登場的利率決策會，但從去年聯準會暴力升息以來，經濟趨緩，台灣更出現製造業衰退情況，儘管主計總處預估今年GDP年增率2.12%，但元大寶華開出第一槍，認為今年經濟成長率難保2。

[[聯準會主席鮑爾(3.9)]]
“雖然最近幾個月通膨有放緩，但要把通膨率降到2%，還有一段長且顛頗的路要走。”

美國聯準會主席鮑爾2週前釋出鷹派言論，要把通膨壓回2%以下水準，但美國矽谷銀行和瑞信接連爆出危機，聯準會在金融穩定和抑制通膨之間，陷入兩難。全球緊盯23號凌晨登場的利率決策會，台灣央行是跟進還是先兵不動，也是焦點。

[[元大寶華綜合經濟研究院董事長葉銀華]]
“(去年) 美國聯準會暴力升息17碼，而副作用先會從金融市場。經濟下行的速度會加快，還有失業率會上升，這總共可能需要一年到兩年以上的時間。下半年美國會維持不動來觀察，如果有可能降息的話，那可能是明年。”

暴力升息副作用顯現，經濟成長放緩，臺灣去年第四季GDP衰退0.4%，主計總處估今年GDP年增率2.12%，央行估2.53%，但元大寶華認為今年難保2，經濟成長率僅有1.91%。其中製造業、出口景氣差，面臨庫存調整，呼籲政府祭出輔導和振興措施，減少衝擊。

[[元大寶華綜合經濟研究院董事長葉銀華]]
“服務類的價格上漲，特別還要觀察到四月電價提高。前兩個月出口是衰退大概有18%之多。央行這一季應該是不會升息。普發現金，還有房租，還有一些補貼，某種程度也可以提升GDP。”

政府普發6000元，專家預估貢獻GDP約0.2%，希望在面對種種通膨、升息挑戰時，能加減穩住今年的GDP。