
Taiwan’s economy contracted for the tenth straight month in August, according to the National Development Council. The NDC’s composite index of indicators flashed a blue light, indicating economic contraction. Taiwan has now surpassed the nine-month contraction streak experienced during the global financial crisis. It’s equaled the ten-month downturns seen during the 2011 European debt crisis and 2015 tech recession. But the NDC says there are signs of a recovery coming soon.
Chiu Chiu-ying
NDC Dept. of Economic Development
The indicator continued to flash blue, mainly due to financial indicators. However, metrics such as exports have shown improvement. The declines in industrial production and sales have slowed. There’s been improvement in these fundamental indicators. With the gradual launch of new AI applications on the market, we expect improvement in exports.
The NDC says the worst of the downturn is over. With new products to hit the market, there’s hope of the economy picking up in the fourth quarter, potentially shifting to "yellow-blue," which indicates sluggishness. In addition, a minimum wage hike and a pay raise for public sector workers will both take effect next year, giving a boost to domestic demand.
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國發會最新公布的8月景氣燈號,亮起第10顆景氣低迷的"藍燈",不只追平2011年歐債危機和2015年科技景氣下滑,甚至比金融海嘯時期的連9藍還要久。
[[經濟發展處副處長 邱秋瑩]]
“燈號還是呈現藍燈,主要是因為金融面的指標,但是實質面的構成項目,出口是有回升,工業生產跟銷售額是跌幅有縮減 ,所以實質面的指標是有呈現改善的,新興的AI的應用新品會逐漸上市,所以它有助於挹注我們的出口動能”
國發會預測”最壞情況”已過,受惠新機上市,出口燈號有望轉為黃藍燈,第四季出口動能,也相對樂觀,尤其明年基本工資調升、軍功教調薪,都可望替內需產業加溫,讓景氣逐步回溫。
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