Trump tariff could cause US exports to drop 63%, GDP to shrink by 3.8%
Trump tariff could cause US exports to drop 63%, GDP to shrink by 3.8%
2025-04-04
Taiwan’s exports to the US could drop by 63% and Taiwan’s GDP growth could shrink by 3.8% under US President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime, according to an economist interviewed by Bloomberg. The Executive Yuan says the tariffs are unfair and will impact all kinds of local industries, ranging from cars to computers to machine tools to shoemaking. It argues that Trump’s move is unreasonable, saying Trump’s calculation methods are unclear and that Taiwan has made enormous contributions to the US economy and national security. It is going to lodge a solemn representation with Washington.
Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would immediately impose a 32% tariff on Taiwanese exports minus semiconductors, the Executive Yuan gathered its ministries for an emergency response meeting.
Officials said the new tariff rate did not reflect the actual state of economic and trade relations between Taiwan and the US and it was unfair to Taiwan. They pointed out three issues they thought were unreasonable. One was the US may have calculated the tariff rates based on a nation’s close trade relationship with China with considerations that these kinds of nations might try to conceal the Chinese origins of their exports. But Taiwan had long ago taken measures against this and made proactive investigations.
Darson Chiu
CIECA
It’s possible that countries which have tried to launder exports originally made in China have seen high tariffs. One way is showing that our data relating to imports from China and data relating to exports to the US have not undergone any obvious changes. Another way is to provide authentication of transparency in supply chains. This can be evidence that we have never tried to launder Chinese products by concealing their origins.
After the US-China trade war broke out, Taiwanese business people from traditional industries moved on a large scale to Southeast Asia to set up factories.
Among the nations slapped with heavy tariffs from Trump are Vietnam at 46%, Cambodia at 49% and Thailand at 36%. All these nations are important bases for Taiwanese business people.
Darson Chiu
CIECA
It is best to wait and see at this time and not take any further action. The USMCA and related preferential policies will continue, which is what Taiwanese business people should consider when deploying their future production lines.
Jimmy Wang
Financial analyst
There are only two countries in the world that make servers, excluding China. One is Taiwan and the other is the US. The US accounts for 0.9% of the world’s market share, which means 98% are made in Taiwan or Mexico. Although many of these products are subject to high tariffs, they are irreplaceable.
When Trump first took tariff action, the car and computer industries were the first to be hit, with their output values expected to fall by NT$60 billion and NT$138.5 billion respectively. Traditional industries such as machine tools and shoemakers will also be hit hard. An economist interviewed by Bloomberg even estimated that Taiwan’s exports to the US will drop by 63% and its GDP will shrink by 3.8%. Trump’s tariffs look set to have a huge impact on Taiwan.
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川普質疑台"洗產地" 專家估台對美出口減63％
2025-04-04
美國總統川普要對台徵收32%關稅，衝擊國內汽車、電腦、工具機、製鞋等產業，彭博經濟學家預估，恐怕讓台灣對美出口減63%、國內GDP萎縮3.8%！行政院認為對台灣不公平、提三大不合理，包含計算方式基礎不明、台灣對美經濟國安貢獻大，不該被課高關稅，川普質疑台「洗產地」更是不合理，會嚴正交涉。
美國總統川普宣布將對台灣課32%關稅，第一時間，行政院召集各部會開緊急應變會議。
會後表示，稅率並未反映台美經貿實際狀況、對台灣不公平，提出三大不合理，其中美國計算稅率考量，包含跟中國貿易密切國家，有「洗產地」疑慮，但台灣早有相關措施、積極查緝。
[[亞太商工總會執行長 邱達生]]
“有可能為中國洗產地的國家都把關稅拉高。我們從中國進口跟到美國出口數據，沒有明顯變化這是一個方式，另外提出供應鏈透明的證明。這些就可以佐證我們並沒有為中國產品做洗產地的動作。”
美中貿易戰開打後，鋼鐵、紡織、鞋業等傳產台商大舉前進東南亞設廠。
這回川普課重稅國家，越南46%、柬埔寨49%、泰國36%都是台商重鎮。
[[亞太商工總會執行長 邱達生]]
“這時間最好就是先觀望，先不要有進一步的動作。USMCA還是相關優惠持續，這是台商未來產線佈局考量。”
[[財經專家 汪潔民]]
“全世界只有兩國家有做伺服器，扣除中國只有兩國家，一個台灣，一個美國，美國佔全球比例0.9%，也就是說98%都是台灣或墨西哥。這裡面很多商品雖然課高關稅，但是是不能取代的。”
川普關稅大刀一揮，汽車、電腦產業首當其衝，分別影響產值高達600億跟1385億，工具機、製鞋等傳產也將受重創，彭博經濟學家甚至預估，台灣對美國出口將銳減63%、台灣GDP萎縮3.8%，高關稅巨大衝擊難以估計！
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